美国人的消费狂潮加剧了供应短缺

DETROIT (AP) — Take a step back from the picked-over store shelves, 停滞不前的集装箱船和空荡荡的汽车展厅, and you’ll find a root cause of the shortages of just about everything.

尽管疫情仍在持续，但美国官员表示.S. 家庭从经济刺激计划中获得大量现金, booming stock markets and enlarged home equity have felt like spending freely again — a lot. 由于消费者需求推动了美国经济的增长.S. and global economies, high demand has brought goods shortages to the U.S. 以及世界上大部分地区.

Add the fact that companies are ordering — and hoarding — more goods and parts than they need so they don’t run out, and you end up with an almost unquenchable demand that is magnifying the supply shortages.

That’s where a big problem comes in: Suppliers were caught so flat-footed by how fast pent-up spending surged out of the recession that they won't likely be able to catch up as long as demand remains so robust. 尤其因为美国人, 他们仍然比疫情前更宅在家里, 继续把更多的钱花在电子产品上, 家具, 电器, 体育用品——而不是酒店之类的服务, 外出就餐和电影票. 所有这些商品需求反过来又有助于加速美国经济增长.S. 通货膨胀.

Unless spending snaps sharply back to services — or something else leads people to stop buying so much — it could take deep into 2022 or even 2023 before global supply chains regain some semblance of normalcy.

“需求完全被扭曲了,Bindiya Vakil说, Resilinc首席执行官, 一家帮助企业管理供应链的咨询公司. “现在这一天比一天更痛苦了.”

One reason people may eventually stop spending so much is that everything simply costs more now. 美国的消费者价格.S. 飙升6.在过去的一年里，有2%是作为食物的, 汽油, autos and housing catapulted 通货膨胀 to its highest pace since 1990. The laws of gravity suggest that the cumulative effect of so much 通货膨胀 will eventually exert a brake on spending.

现在, 虽然, manufacturers foresee no end to heavy demand — and no end to beleaguered supply chains or spiking 通货膨胀 pressures. 由于长期缺乏电脑芯片，福特汽车(Ford Motor Co .)不得不放弃生产芯片., 例如, to revamp its system of ordering parts that require long periods from order to delivery to try to address shortages.

“It’s highlighted that the “just-in-time” operating model that’s been prevalent in autos may not be the right operating model,“唐浩泰, 福特的首席运营官和产品官, 告诉分析师.

规模较小的公司, 太, have felt compelled to build up as many supplies as they can so they can still make products. 芝加哥附近的莫里亚蒂宝石艺术店, 这是一家40年的家族企业, 一直在囤积黄金, 白银和铂金用来做项链和戒指, 随着假日订单的增加，不顾一切地不让供应耗尽.

“We’re ordering a lot more than what we actually have orders for — just in case,杰夫·莫里亚蒂说, 市场部经理.

即使是正常的节后购物停顿, 虽然这可能会有帮助, 预计不足以疏通港口, speed shipping traffic or allow factories to replenish inventories.

“The baseline expectation for improvement is around the middle of 2022,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. 牛津经济研究院经济学家. “但我认为以后发生这种情况的风险相当高.”

尽管最近几个月美国人越来越多地外出冒险, 商品和服务支出之间的平衡仍然不平衡. The pent-up demand that followed the economic recovery is still tilted toward goods like 家具 and cars and less toward haircuts, 音乐会和餐厅用餐. Though services spending has grown in recent months, it isn't nearly enough to close the gap.

自2020年4月以来，消费者在商品上的支出增长了32%. It's now 15% above where it was in February 2020, just before the pandemic paralyzed the economy. Goods account for roughly 40% of consumer spending now, up from 36% before the pandemic.

U.S. 工厂竭尽全力满足需求. 过去一年，产量增长了近5%, 根据美联储的说法, 尽管有周期性的起伏, 包括芯片短缺导致的汽车生产中断.

Imports have narrowed the gap between what America's consumers want and what its factories can produce. 从今年1月到9月，美国政府将在全国范围内实施.S. 进口比2020年同期增长23%. 9月份，由于进口激增，美国经济增长放缓.S. posted a record deficit in goods trade: Imports topped exports by $98.20亿年.

Voracious demand for goods has accelerated as more people have become vaccinated in wealthier countries. 然而在较贫穷的国家, 尤其是在东南亚, the spread of the delta variant forced new factory shutdowns in recent months and crimped supply chains again. 直到最近才开始复苏.

与此同时，许多美国人.S. workers have decided to quit jobs that had required frequent public contact. This created shortages of workers to unload ships, transport goods or staff retail shops.

港口堵塞. 上个月, 65 ships waited off the California coast to be unloaded at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — two weeks’ worth of work. 平均等待时间为12天. 此后，这一数字已恶化至78艘, 平均等待时间接近17天, 尽管港口从10月开始全天候运营.

大流行之前, ships had set arrival times and went straight to a berth for unloading, Gene Seroka说, L.A. 港口执行董事. Now, with Asian factory output at record highs, the port is moving record levels of goods. 然而，这还不足以满足需求.

Seroka预计明年的出货量也不会下降. Retailers have told him they plan to use the slower months of January and February — if they actually are slower — to replenish inventory.

与港口一样，铁路运输的货物也越来越多. Through early November, freight shipped by America's railroads was up 7.比一年前下降了5%. 卡车出货量增加了1%.9月份为7%. 然而，没有足够的司机或卡车来运送所有的货物.

在中国, 太, 制造商们正与发货延迟作斗争, 集装箱短缺和成本增加. 汕头市力美国际有限公司., 汕头市哪家公司生产儿童玩具, expects sales to fall 30% this year because of delays and costlier shipping.

“The most serious problem for us is being unable to deliver goods on time because of the difficulties in securing freight containers,Frank Xie说, 公司的总经理. “很多事情都超出了我们的控制和预期.”

菲利普·理查森, 一个在番禺生产扬声器的美国人, 邻近香港, 上述订单增加了400%. 一个关键原因是来自美国和欧洲的需求增加, 谁在疯狂购买家用电器. 装运货物到美国的价格.S. customers on a 40-foot cargo container, meantime, more than tripled in July.

“The customer has to bear it or cut back on orders," Richardson said.

Song Wenjie, owner of Hand-in-Hand Electric Appliance Technology Co., 嘉兴的一家家电制造商, 上海以南, said that soaring cargo prices make it unprofitable to ship some goods.

“The combination of power outages and shipping delays might lead to a 20% fall in production this year, 歌曲说.

Among European companies grappling with snarled supply lines is Shoe Zone, 这家英国零售商的大部分鞋类产品都来自中国. Shipping container prices have jumped at least five-fold in 12 months, 安东尼·史密斯说, 首席执行官.

“This will continue to impact us for at least a further six months until the issues being experienced in the whole supply chain return to more sensible levels,他说.